Although I currently hold $Op, and the price of Op is rising strongly, I may want to pour cold water on those friends who hold OP and hope to make a hundred times profit on this project: OP can make money, but not Make a lot of money!
Investment logic: Good projects do not equal Alpha opportunities
First, we must understand a basic investment logic: good projects do not equal Alpha opportunities. This article mainly explains my views on the later stage of OP. Personally, I think OP is really awesome, but purely from the perspective of OP tokens, there is no possibility of high-fold growth. This is very interesting. Many people think that if a project is great, the token must be great. In fact, sometimes this is the opposite.
For example, in the early days of DYDX, the project was a top decentralized exchange (DEX) at that stage, but because the project did not empower the tokens well, the value of the early tokens has not been able to increase. Another example is ARB, which is currently in the same situation. Therefore, a good project does not mean that the token will rise rapidly. This is something investors must understand.
Related logic of OP project
1. Basic disk of Op super chain
First of all, let us understand the basics of Op Super Chain through this video: Introduction to Op Super Chain
In fact, the development of Op chain is relatively mediocre, far less dazzling than Arb, and it is in a satisfactory position. But the development of OP Stack shows Op's different strategic vision. At the technical level, Arb is far ahead of Op; at the Tao level, Op is way behind Arb.
OP Stack can be understood as a toolbox for one-click L2 generation, which greatly simplifies the construction of L2 chains. These decentralized L2 chains developed based on Op Stack share security, communication layer and open source technology, forming the vision of Op super chain.
2. Op super chain inherits the vision of Cosmos
Friends who have played in the Cosmos ecosystem should have this feeling. The vision of Cosmos is being realized by the Op super chain. Cosmos also releases chains with one click. Based on the same framework standard, IBC connects various chains to achieve seamless interoperability.
Cosmos has already achieved all this, but lacked market support and was eventually absorbed by the ETH-based L2. This is also the leading charm of ETH. The trial and error cost of innovation in other chains is extremely high. Once the experiment is successful, the fruits will also be stolen by the ETH chain. It can be said that other chains are experimental fields for the ETH system.
3. BASE of Op super chain
At present, the development of Op super chain is beyond expectations, especially the BASE chain. The cumulative number of unique addresses of Base is even higher than that of the OP main network. Both the summer dog fever and the popular Friend.tech came from the BASE chain. It is not an exaggeration to say that the BASE chain is "mother-killing" in terms of momentum, that is, BASE is developed based on Op Stack, but its development has surpassed the original owner Op.
4. L2’s “matricide” phenomenon
The "matricide" phenomenon first appeared in the Cosmos ecosystem, and the market value of Luna exceeded the market value of ATOM. Luna is a chain developed based on Cosmos, and Atom is the Cosmos hub token. The phenomenon of "matricide" is not a bad thing. It just shows that the ecology is extremely dynamic, and all the ecological participants have a chance to overpower the emperor. The Base chain has begun to possess the potential of “matricide”, which just proves the strategic success of the Op super chain. Op provides a one-click L2 platform, with all infrastructure completed. Each Op sub-chain focuses on business and innovation, thus fully displaying its magical power and letting a hundred flowers bloom.
In addition to BASE, Op super chains also include Zora, PGN, Mode, DeBank, etc. There will be more and more players joining the Op Super Chain in the future. Strategically, with the enrichment of the Op super chain ecology, network effects will eventually be formed.
5. Network effects of Op super chain
Op provides chain issuance services and various underlying infrastructure, attracting various forces to launch L2 chains here. The more participants settle in, the gathering of financial talents will further promote the improvement of underlying services, thus attracting more forces to settle in, and ultimately form a powerful network effect. This is the moat of the Op super chain. Once this trend is formed, it is likely to mean the end of the L2 war, and the Op super chain will dominate the L2 ecology.
Forming network effects, building a moat, and dominating the L2 ecosystem may be the ultimate strategic goal of the Op super chain.
6. Main factors why Op Tokens do not have Alpha opportunities
Op Token Empowerment Difficulties
This is also the problem with all L2 token empowerment. First, the security layer captures most of the benefits. The security layer of the Op super chain is ETH, and the premise of L2 is based on the security of L1. Therefore, no matter how L2 designs the economic model, the majority of the interests will always belong to ETH, which makes the remaining operational empowerment space of L2 chain tokens limited.
In terms of asset attributes, Op tokens currently do not have them. Looking directly at the LP trading pairs of DEX, they are mainly ETH and various stable coins, which are even inferior to ATOM in this regard. ATOM has also encountered empowerment problems in the Cosmos ecosystem, but ATOM is the main asset in the DEX of the sub-chain, and the matching volume of the LP pool is very high.
In terms of functional attributes, the Op token is unlikely to be used as the Gas currency of the L2 chain. This is not a technical problem, but a problem of user experience. Once the Op token is forced to be a Gas currency, competitors will laugh crazy and may even be boycotted by the ETH community.
Shared sorter assignment variable is large
There is also the most mentioned shared sorter, where users can pledge Op tokens to become a sorter and charge fees for their services. This is currently the best Op token empowerment solution, but there are too many variables.
The first is the conflict of interest. As early as 2021, the Op was talking about a decentralized sorter. Why has it not been implemented yet? Is it really technically difficult? Maybe, but it's more likely to be a trade-off of interests. The revenue rights of the centralized sorter belong to the project itself. Why should this revenue right be given to everyone?
Secondly, whether the Op token is empowered or not is not directly related to the ecology. The ecosystem needs to develop. Look at the BASE chain, because the L2 chain does not need to issue coins. The core requirement for issuing coins is still for early financing, so everyone has not thought about how to design models and solve empowerment problems after issuing coins.
So when will the decentralized sorter be launched? There are two situations: 1. Direct risk events caused by the centralized sorter 2. Other L2s have launched decentralized sorters, forcing Op
Otherwise, it would be unrealistic and not in line with human nature for the Op project team to consciously put down their golden jobs.
Op valuation is overexploited by the primary market
You can carefully study the growth of Op's circulation market value and Op's price chart this year. You will definitely be surprised. Op has been bombarded with various big moves this year, why is the token performance mediocre? On the one hand, it is the restriction of the market environment, but if you take a closer look at the circulating market value of Op, you will be surprised to find that the original circulating market value of Op tokens has increased five times this year.
In summary, as an investment target, Op's ability to stably outperform inflation is not a big problem, but when it comes to excess returns, Op does not have Alpha opportunities. It is crucial for investors to understand these logics and make investment decisions accordingly.